Murom vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk prediction

Murom have won none, drawn none and lost one of their one Second League - Final Four games so far, scoring 0 and letting in 1. That has them 4th on 0 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, three draws and one defeat, at 1.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 1-0 to FK Spartak Tambov away; before that came a 2-2 draw at home to Cherepovets and a 3-1 win at home to Spartak Moscow 2.

Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank three times. At home they've won one of three recently (5 scored, 3 conceded).

So far in the Second League - Final Four, Khimik Dzerzhinsk have won none, drawn none and lost one of one, with 2 goals scored and 3 conceded, good for 3rd place and 0 points.

Over the last six matches it has been four wins, no draws and two defeats, averaging 2.8 goals for and 1.5 against. Last time out they lost 3-2 to Sevastopol away; before that came a 2-1 win away at Dinamo Barnaul and a 3-1 win at home to Krylya Sovetov II.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. Two clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won two of four recently (9 scored, 8 conceded).

There isn't much between Murom's home form and Khimik Dzerzhinsk's away form. The two sides are level on points. Khimik Dzerzhinsk also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Murom favourites at 48%, with Khimik Dzerzhinsk on 29% and the draw at 23%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Murom still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 3.2 in the game: 1.8 for Murom and 1.4 for Khimik Dzerzhinsk. Over 2.5 goals is 58% and both teams scoring 58%. Their last meeting, on 24 Oct 2022, finished 0-0.