Milan vs Atalanta prediction, 18 October 2026

Milan

Sunday, 18 October 2026

32Half time 2 : 0Serie A

Atalanta

Ramos (P) 24′
Rabiot 43′
Gila 58′

Gaetano 66′
Krstovic 81′

Match result

Pre-match prediction

Locked at kickoff

50.7%Milan

25.9%Draw

23.4%Atalanta

Double chance

Milan or draw77%

Either team wins74%

Atalanta or draw49%

1.6Milan2.7expected goals1.1Atalanta

Every market

All predictions

Total goals

LineOverUnder

0.592%8%

1.573%27%

2.549%51%

3.529%71%

4.515%85%

Both teams to score

Yes50%No50%

GG2+

No87%Yes13%

Team total goals

OverMilanAtalanta

0.578%64%

1.546%29%

2.522%11%

Clean sheet

Milan36%Atalanta22%

Win to nil

Milan29%Atalanta13%

Odd or even goals

Odd50%Even50%

Winning margin

Draw26%

WinsMilanAtalanta

by 124%14%

by 215%6%

by 3+12%3%

Total goal bands

0-1 goals27%2-3 goals44%4-5 goals22%6+ goals7%

Match preview · Serie A

Milan vs Atalanta: preview and prediction

18 Oct 2026 · 17:00San Siro/Giuseppe MeazzaDaniele Chiffi

Milan welcome Atalanta to San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza in Milan on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 17:00. It's matchday 7 in the Serie A. Milan go into it 5th in the table after ten games, with Atalanta 13th, 8 places lower. Last time out Milan won 4-0 away at Salzburg, and Atalanta beat Pafos 3-1 at home.

The forecast

51%Milan26%Draw23%Atalanta

Expected goals1.6-1.1Over 2.5 goals49%Both teams score50%

FormEvenHome and awayMilanThe tableMilanGoalsMilanHead to headAtalantaTeam newsMilan

Milan: form and key numbers

So far in the Serie A, Milan have won six, drawn three and lost one of ten, with 21 goals scored and 12 conceded, good for 5th place and 21 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, three draws and one defeat, averaging 1.8 goals for and 1.0 against. Last time out they beat Salzburg 4-0 away; before that came a 1-1 draw away at Sassuolo and a 3-0 win at home to Lecce.

Milan are unbeaten in three. Two clean sheets in that spell. At home they've won one of two recently (3 scored, 2 conceded). A. Saelemaekers (ankle injury) and M. Gabbia (thigh injury) both miss out.

MilanLast 6 · 2W 3D 1L

15 OctASalzburg4-0W
11 OctASassuolo1-1D
20 SeptHLecce3-0W
16 SeptHBenfica0-2L
12 SeptALazio2-2D
6 SeptAJuventus1-1D

1.8scored a game1.0conceded a game1.5points a game

At home · last 2WL

Milan: last 6 results in all competitions, newest first.

Atalanta: form and key numbers

Atalanta have won three, drawn two and lost five of their ten Serie A games so far, scoring 16 and letting in 20. That has them 13th on 11 points.

Their last six in all competitions read three wins, no draws and three defeats, at 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Pafos 3-1 at home; before that came a 3-1 win at home to Venezia and a 2-0 defeat away at Juventus.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last five. On the road they've won none of two recently (1 scored, 4 conceded). E. Elmas (red card), F. Kessie (calf injury) and G. Raspadori (thigh injury), plus five others, are all unavailable.

AtalantaLast 6 · 3W 0D 3L

15 OctHPafos3-1W
12 OctHVenezia3-1W
20 SeptAJuventus0-2L
12 SeptHCagliari1-2L
5 SeptARoma1-2L
31 AugHBologna1-0W

1.5scored a game1.3conceded a game1.5points a game

Away · last 2LL

Atalanta: last 6 results in all competitions, newest first.

Milan vs Atalanta: match analysis

Home and away form points to Milan: Milan have won one of their last two at home, Atalanta none of their last two on the road. Ten points separate the two sides in the table. Milan also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

The table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
4	Como 1907	10	7	2	1	+10	23
5	Milan	10	6	3	1	+9	21
6	Frosinone	10	6	2	2	+10	20
···
12	Cagliari	10	4	1	5	-6	13
13	Atalanta	10	3	2	5	-4	11
14	Lecce	10	3	0	7	-10	9

We make Milan favourites at 51%, with Atalanta on 23% and the draw at 26%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

Goals, recent and expected

1.8Scored a game1.5
1.0Conceded a game1.3
1.6Expected here (xG)1.1

Over 1.573%Over 2.549%Over 3.529%Both score50%

On goals, it expects around 2.7 in the game: 1.6 for Milan and 1.1 for Atalanta. Over 2.5 goals is 49% and both teams scoring 50%. When they last met, on 10 May 2026, Atalanta won 3-2.

Last meetings