Santander vs Alaves prediction

Santander have won three, drawn two and lost six of their 11 La Liga games so far, scoring 15 and letting in 29. That has them 16th on 11 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, two draws and two defeats, at 2.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 3-2 to Vallecano away; before that came a 3-2 win at home to Elche and a 1-0 defeat away at Getafe.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. At home they've won two of three recently (9 scored, 5 conceded).

So far in the La Liga, Alaves have won three, drawn three and lost five of 11, with 15 goals scored and 17 conceded, good for 11th place and 12 points.

Over the last six matches it has been four wins, one draw and one defeat, averaging 2.0 goals for and 0.8 against. Last time out they beat Osasuna 5-2 at home; before that came a 1-0 win at home to Villarreal and a 1-1 draw away at Vallecano.

Alaves are unbeaten in four. They have scored in each of their last six. Three clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won one of two recently (2 scored, 1 conceded).

There isn't much between Santander's home form and Alaves's away form. One point separates the two sides in the table. Alaves also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Santander clear favourites at 57%, with Alaves on 22% and the draw at 21%. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Santander still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 3.2 in the game: 2.0 for Santander and 1.2 for Alaves. Over 2.5 goals is 62% and both teams scoring 60%. When they last met, on 21 Jan 2023, Alaves won 3-0.