AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II prediction

AZ Alkmaar have won six, drawn two and lost three of their 11 Eredivisie games so far, scoring 20 and letting in 13. That has them 5th on 20 points.

Their last six in all competitions read five wins, one draw and no defeats, at 3.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Heerenveen 3-2 away; before that came a 5-2 win at home to Go Ahead Eagles and a 2-0 win away at For Sittard.

AZ Alkmaar are unbeaten in six. They have scored in each of their last six. Two clean sheets in that spell. At home they've won two of three recently (10 scored, 5 conceded).

So far in the Eredivisie, Willem II have won none, drawn two and lost nine of 11, with 10 goals scored and 39 conceded, good for 18th place and 2 points.

Over the last six matches it has been one win, two draws and three defeats, averaging 1.2 goals for and 2.3 against. Last time out they lost 3-0 to Excelsior at home; before that came a 2-2 draw at home to Heerenveen and a 4-1 defeat at home to Nijmegen.

Willem II haven't won in four. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four.

18 points separate the two sides in the table. AZ Alkmaar also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make AZ Alkmaar clear favourites at 84%, with Willem II on 5% and the draw at 11%.

On goals, it expects around 3.7 in the game: 2.9 for AZ Alkmaar and 0.8 for Willem II. Over 2.5 goals is 72% and both teams scoring 53%. When they last met, on 2 Feb 2025, AZ Alkmaar won 2-0.