San Juan Atletico de Montcada vs Peralada prediction

So far in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 5, San Juan Atletico de Montcada have won three, drawn one and lost five of nine, with 11 goals scored and 17 conceded, good for 15th place and 10 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, one draw and three defeats, averaging 1.3 goals for and 1.8 against. Last time out they lost 2-1 to Mollerussa away; before that came a 2-2 draw at home to L'Hospitalet and a 2-0 defeat away at Vilanova.

San Juan Atletico de Montcada haven't won in three. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. They failed to score in two of those games. At home they've won one of three recently (4 scored, 6 conceded).

Peralada have won two, drawn five and lost two of their nine Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 games so far, scoring 11 and letting in 9. That has them 13th on 11 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, three draws and one defeat, at 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Pobla Mafumet 2-1 at home; before that came a 1-0 defeat at home to Cerdanyola del Vallès and a 2-2 draw away at Mollerussa.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last five. On the road they've won none of two recently (3 scored, 3 conceded).

There isn't much between San Juan Atletico de Montcada's home form and Peralada's away form. One point separates the two sides in the table. Peralada also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make San Juan Atletico de Montcada favourites at 41%, with Peralada on 30% and the draw at 29%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, San Juan Atletico de Montcada still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.7 in the game: 1.5 for San Juan Atletico de Montcada and 1.2 for Peralada. Over 2.5 goals is 50% and both teams scoring 54%.