Montpellier vs Metz prediction

Montpellier have won seven, drawn three and lost one of their 11 Ligue 2 games so far, scoring 16 and letting in 6. That has them 2nd on 24 points.

Their last six in all competitions read five wins, one draw and no defeats, at 2.0 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Annecy 3-0 away; before that came a 2-1 win at home to Red Star and a 3-0 win away at Rodez.

Montpellier are unbeaten in six. They have scored in each of their last six. Four clean sheets in that spell. At home they've won three of three recently (5 scored, 1 conceded).

So far in the Ligue 2, Metz have won three, drawn five and lost three of 11, with 17 goals scored and 17 conceded, good for 10th place and 14 points.

Over the last six matches it has been one win, two draws and three defeats, averaging 1.5 goals for and 2.2 against. Last time out they lost 3-1 to Pau FC at home; before that came a 1-1 draw away at Dunkerque and a 3-2 win at home to Sochaux.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. On the road they've won none of three recently (3 scored, 6 conceded).

Home and away form points to Montpellier: Montpellier have won three of their last three at home, Metz none of their last three on the road. Ten points separate the two sides in the table. Montpellier also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Montpellier favourites at 49%, with Metz on 21% and the draw at 29%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 2.6 in the game: 1.6 for Montpellier and 1.1 for Metz. Over 2.5 goals is 48% and both teams scoring 50%. When they last met, on 18 Feb 2024, Montpellier won 3-0.