Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg prediction

So far in the Bundesliga, Sturm Graz have won five, drawn four and lost two of 11, with 19 goals scored and 13 conceded, good for 4th place and 19 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, two draws and two defeats, averaging 2.3 goals for and 1.7 against. Last time out they lost 3-2 to Celje at home; before that came a 1-1 draw away at Wolfsberger AC and a 3-2 defeat away at A. Lustenau.

Sturm Graz haven't won in four. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. At home they've won two of four recently (11 scored, 6 conceded).

Red Bull Salzburg have won eight, drawn three and lost none of their 11 Bundesliga games so far, scoring 29 and letting in 6. That has them 2nd on 27 points.

Their last six in all competitions read four wins, one draw and one defeat, at 2.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 2-0 to Anderlecht away; before that came a 5-1 win at home to A. Lustenau and a 3-2 win away at Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last five. On the road they've won two of four recently (8 scored, 7 conceded).

There isn't much between Sturm Graz's home form and Red Bull Salzburg's away form. Eight points separate the two sides in the table. Red Bull Salzburg also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Red Bull Salzburg favourites at 45%, with Sturm Graz on 31% and the draw at 24%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 3.0 in the game: 1.5 for Sturm Graz and 1.5 for Red Bull Salzburg. Over 2.5 goals is 63% and both teams scoring 61%. When they last met, on 20 Sept 2026, Salzburg won 3-0.