Millwall vs Derby County prediction

Millwall have won five, drawn three and lost five of their 13 Championship games so far, scoring 23 and letting in 21. That has them 12th on 18 points.

Their last six in all competitions read one win, three draws and two defeats, at 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 2-1 to Portsmouth away; before that came a 2-2 draw at home to Lincoln and a 1-0 defeat at home to Swansea.

Millwall haven't won in three. At home they've won none of three recently (4 scored, 5 conceded). C. De Norre (muscle injury), F. Marschall (injury) and J. Coburn (muscle injury), plus four others, are all unavailable.

So far in the Championship, Derby County have won one, drawn four and lost eight of 13, with 11 goals scored and 25 conceded, good for 23rd place and 7 points.

Over the last six matches it has been no wins, three draws and three defeats, averaging 0.8 goals for and 1.7 against. Last time out they drew 1-1 with Sheffield United; before that came a 1-0 defeat at home to Stoke and a 4-1 defeat away at Queens Park Rangers.

Derby County haven't won in six. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. On the road they've won none of three recently (3 scored, 6 conceded). C. Forsyth (knee injury), C. Taylor (injury) and D. Murkin (hamstring injury), plus six others, are all unavailable.

There isn't much between Millwall's home form and Derby County's away form. 11 points separate the two sides in the table. Millwall also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Millwall clear favourites at 52%, with Derby County on 22% and the draw at 26%.

On goals, it expects around 2.9 in the game: 1.7 for Millwall and 1.1 for Derby County. Over 2.5 goals is 54% and both teams scoring 55%. When they last met, on 10 Mar 2026, Millwall won 1-0.