Alaves vs Valencia prediction

So far in the La Liga, Alaves have won three, drawn three and lost five of 11, with 15 goals scored and 17 conceded, good for 11th place and 12 points.

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, one draw and two defeats, averaging 2.0 goals for and 1.2 against. Last time out they lost 2-1 to Santander away; before that came a 5-2 win at home to Osasuna and a 1-0 win at home to Villarreal.

They have scored in each of their last six. Two clean sheets in that spell. At home they've won three of four recently (10 scored, 4 conceded).

Valencia have won two, drawn three and lost six of their 11 La Liga games so far, scoring 8 and letting in 17. That has them 19th on 9 points.

Their last six in all competitions read one win, one draw and four defeats, at 0.7 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 1-0 to Sevilla away; before that came a 5-0 defeat at home to Barcelona and a 3-1 defeat away at Deportivo La Coruna.

Valencia haven't won in five. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. They failed to score in four of those games. On the road they've won none of two recently (1 scored, 4 conceded).

Home and away form points to Alaves: Alaves have won three of their last four at home, Valencia none of their last two on the road. Three points separate the two sides in the table. Alaves also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Alaves favourites at 44%, with Valencia on 31% and the draw at 25%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 2.8 in the game: 1.5 for Alaves and 1.2 for Valencia. Over 2.5 goals is 52% and both teams scoring 55%. When they last met, on 8 Mar 2026, Valencia won 3-2.