Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom prediction

Sparta Praha have won one, drawn one and lost one of their three UEFA Europa League games so far, scoring 5 and letting in 3. That has them 16th on 4 points.

Their last six in all competitions read six wins, no draws and no defeats, at 3.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Pardubice 2-0 at home; before that came a 5-3 win at home to Vysočina Jihlava and a 3-0 win away at Sigma Olomouc.

Sparta Praha are unbeaten in six. They have scored in each of their last six. Four clean sheets in that spell. At home they've won three of three recently (9 scored, 3 conceded). A. Karabec (ankle injury), E. Cobbaut (groin injury) and E. Uchenna (groin injury), plus six others, are all unavailable.

So far in the UEFA Europa League, Lillestrom have won none, drawn one and lost two of three, with 2 goals scored and 9 conceded, good for 31st place and 1 point.

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, one draw and two defeats, averaging 2.0 goals for and 1.5 against. Last time out they drew 2-2 with Molde; before that came a 5-1 win away at Bærum and a 3-0 defeat away at Viking.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. On the road they've won two of three recently (7 scored, 5 conceded). C. Jebara (injury), E. B. Garnas (knee injury) and L. Alperud (injury) are all unavailable.

Home and away form points to Sparta Praha: Sparta Praha have won three of their last three at home, Lillestrom two of their last three on the road. Three points separate the two sides in the table. Sparta Praha also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Sparta Praha clear favourites at 75%, with Lillestrom on 9% and the draw at 16%.

On goals, it expects around 3.7 in the game: 2.7 for Sparta Praha and 1.0 for Lillestrom. Over 2.5 goals is 71% and both teams scoring 58%.