QPR vs Derby prediction

QPR have won five, drawn five and lost three of their 13 Championship games so far, scoring 21 and letting in 16. That has them 9th on 20 points.

Their last six in all competitions read one win, four draws and one defeat, at 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Last time out they drew 1-1 with West Ham United; before that came a 2-2 draw at home to Preston and a 1-1 draw away at West Bromwich Albion.

QPR are unbeaten in four. They failed to score in two of those games. At home they've won one of three recently (4 scored, 4 conceded). I. Chair, K. Dembele and R. Burrell are all unavailable.

So far in the Championship, Derby have won one, drawn four and lost eight of 13, with 11 goals scored and 25 conceded, good for 23rd place and 7 points.

Over the last six matches it has been one win, two draws and three defeats, averaging 0.8 goals for and 1.3 against. Last time out they drew 1-1 with Wrexham; before that came a 1-1 draw away at Burnley and a 2-1 defeat at home to Birmingham.

Derby haven't won in five. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last five. They failed to score in two of those games. On the road they've won one of three recently (3 scored, 4 conceded). C. Forsyth, C. Taylor and D. Murkin, plus three others, are all unavailable.

There isn't much between QPR's home form and Derby's away form. 13 points separate the two sides in the table. QPR also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make QPR clear favourites at 51%, with Derby on 24% and the draw at 25%.

On goals, it expects around 2.7 in the game: 1.6 for QPR and 1.1 for Derby. Over 2.5 goals is 51% and both teams scoring 54%. When they last met, on 25 Apr 2026, Derby won 3-2.