Cruz Azul vs Toluca prediction

So far in the Liga MX, Cruz Azul have won eight, drawn two and lost four of 14, with 32 goals scored and 23 conceded, good for 2nd place and 26 points.

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, no draws and three defeats, averaging 1.3 goals for and 1.5 against. Last time out they lost 1-0 to Monterrey away; before that came a 2-0 defeat away at Inter Miami and a 4-3 win at home to Club America.

They failed to score in three of those games. At home they've won two of three recently (5 scored, 5 conceded).

Toluca have won six, drawn five and lost three of their 14 Liga MX games so far, scoring 29 and letting in 19. That has them 5th on 23 points.

Their last six in all competitions read four wins, one draw and one defeat, at 2.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 3-2 to Santos Laguna at home; before that came a 1-0 win away at Puebla and a 5-2 win at home to Atlas.

They have scored in each of their last five. Three clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won two of three recently (3 scored, 1 conceded).

There isn't much between Cruz Azul's home form and Toluca's away form. Three points separate the two sides in the table. Toluca also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Cruz Azul favourites at 42%, with Toluca on 29% and the draw at 29%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 2.9 in the game: 1.6 for Cruz Azul and 1.3 for Toluca. Over 2.5 goals is 56% and both teams scoring 59%. Their last meeting, on 7 Feb 2026, finished 1-1.