Red Bull Salzburg vs Milan prediction

Red Bull Salzburg have won one, drawn one and lost one of their three UEFA Europa League games so far, scoring 3 and letting in 6. That has them 21st on 4 points.

Their last six in all competitions read three wins, two draws and one defeat, at 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game. Last time out they were held to a goalless draw by Grazer AK; before that came a 2-1 defeat at home to BW Linz and a 3-0 win at home to Sturm Graz.

Four clean sheets in that spell. At home they've won one of two recently (4 scored, 2 conceded). A. Chase (off the roster), C. Zawieschitzky (muscle injury) and D. Redzic (ankle injury), plus seven others, are all unavailable.

So far in the UEFA Europa League, Milan have won one, drawn none and lost two of three, with 4 goals scored and 5 conceded, good for 24th place and 3 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, three draws and one defeat, averaging 1.5 goals for and 1.0 against. Last time out they drew 1-1 with Sassuolo; before that came a 3-0 win at home to Lecce and a 2-0 defeat at home to Benfica.

Two clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won none of three recently (4 scored, 4 conceded). A. Saelemaekers (ankle injury), M. Gabbia (thigh injury) and P. Terracciano (inactive), plus one other, are all unavailable.

Home and away form points to Red Bull Salzburg: Red Bull Salzburg have won one of their last two at home, Milan none of their last three on the road. One point separates the two sides in the table. Red Bull Salzburg also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Milan favourites at 43%, with Red Bull Salzburg on 31% and the draw at 26%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 2.7 in the game: 1.2 for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.5 for Milan. Over 2.5 goals is 52% and both teams scoring 55%. When they last met, on 2 Nov 2022, AC Milan won 4-0.