Elversberg vs Mainz prediction

So far in the Bundesliga, Elversberg have won four, drawn one and lost three of eight, with 16 goals scored and 16 conceded, good for 7th place and 13 points.

Over the last six matches it has been one win, one draw and four defeats, averaging 0.8 goals for and 2.0 against. Last time out they lost 2-0 to Darmstadt at home; before that came a 4-0 defeat away at RB Leipzig and a 4-3 win at home to Augsburg.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. They failed to score in four of those games. At home they've won one of three recently (5 scored, 7 conceded). J. Gyamerah (thigh injury), L. Gunther (knock) and L. Pinckert (muscle injury), plus three others, are all unavailable.

Mainz have won three, drawn one and lost four of their eight Bundesliga games so far, scoring 17 and letting in 17. That has them 9th on 10 points.

Their last six in all competitions read three wins, no draws and three defeats, at 2.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 2-0 to Bochum away; before that came a 3-2 defeat at home to Werder Bremen and a 1-0 win away at Schalke 04.

Two clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won three of four recently (8 scored, 5 conceded). D. Kohr (foot injury), N. Amiri (knee injury) and O. Ruoppi (knee injury), plus one other, are all unavailable.

Home and away form points to Mainz: Elversberg have won one of their last three at home, Mainz three of their last four on the road. Three points separate the two sides in the table. Mainz also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Mainz clear favourites at 52%, with Elversberg on 27% and the draw at 21%.

On goals, it expects around 3.5 in the game: 1.3 for Elversberg and 2.3 for Mainz. Over 2.5 goals is 67% and both teams scoring 62%.