Lens vs Marseille prediction

Lens have won four, drawn one and lost four of their nine Ligue 1 games so far, scoring 16 and letting in 13. That has them 9th on 13 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, no draws and four defeats, at 1.0 goals scored and 2.8 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 9-1 to Como at home; before that came a 1-0 defeat away at Lille and a 2-1 win at home to Paris FC.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. They failed to score in three of those games. At home they've won one of three recently (3 scored, 12 conceded).

So far in the Ligue 1, Marseille have won five, drawn none and lost four of nine, with 20 goals scored and 13 conceded, good for 6th place and 15 points.

Over the last six matches it has been four wins, no draws and two defeats, averaging 2.2 goals for and 1.2 against. Last time out they beat Toulouse 2-0 at home; before that came a 4-3 win at home to Le Havre and a 1-0 defeat away at Sturm Graz.

Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. On the road they've won two of three recently (7 scored, 3 conceded).

Home and away form points to Marseille: Lens have won one of their last three at home, Marseille two of their last three on the road. Two points separate the two sides in the table. Marseille also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Lens favourites at 48%, with Marseille on 28% and the draw at 24%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 3.0 in the game: 1.8 for Lens and 1.2 for Marseille. Over 2.5 goals is 61% and both teams scoring 56%. When they last met, on 24 Jan 2026, Marseille won 3-1.