Trepça Mitrovicë vs Istogu prediction

So far in the Liga E Pare, Trepça Mitrovicë have won three, drawn three and lost seven of 13, with 10 goals scored and 22 conceded, good for 15th place and 12 points.

Over the last six matches it has been one win, one draw and four defeats, averaging 0.7 goals for and 1.7 against. Last time out they drew 2-2 with Vjosa; before that came a 3-1 defeat at home to Trepça'89 and a 2-0 defeat away at Ferizaj.

Trepça Mitrovicë haven't won in five. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last five. They failed to score in three of those games. At home they've won one of three recently (2 scored, 4 conceded).

Istogu have won six, drawn one and lost six of their 13 Liga E Pare games so far, scoring 13 and letting in 16. That has them 11th on 19 points.

Their last six in all competitions read four wins, no draws and two defeats, at 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Dinamo Ferizaj 2-0 at home; before that came a 1-0 defeat away at Mitrovica and a 1-0 win at home to Ramiz Sadiku.

Three clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. On the road they've won one of three recently (2 scored, 2 conceded).

There isn't much between Trepça Mitrovicë's home form and Istogu's away form. Seven points separate the two sides in the table. Istogu also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Trepça Mitrovicë favourites at 38%, with Istogu on 31% and the draw at 30%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Trepça Mitrovicë still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.5 in the game: 1.2 for Trepça Mitrovicë and 1.3 for Istogu. Over 2.5 goals is 46% and both teams scoring 51%.