Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht prediction

So far in the UEFA Europa League, Jagiellonia have won one, drawn none and lost two of three, with 4 goals scored and 6 conceded, good for 27th place and 3 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, no draws and four defeats, averaging 1.8 goals for and 1.7 against. Last time out they lost 1-0 to Zaglebie away; before that came a 3-1 win at home to Ararat-Armenia and a 3-1 defeat at home to Górnik Zabrze.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. At home they've won two of five recently (11 scored, 9 conceded). C. Polak (off the roster), D. Drachal (off the roster) and D. Rallis (off the roster), plus three others, are all unavailable.

Anderlecht have won one, drawn none and lost two of their three UEFA Europa League games so far, scoring 4 and letting in 3. That has them 22nd on 3 points.

Their last six in all competitions read three wins, no draws and three defeats, at 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 2-1 to Beerschot VA away; before that came a 1-0 defeat away at Dinamo Zagreb and a 2-1 win away at Cercle Brugge.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. On the road they've won one of three recently (3 scored, 4 conceded). G. Biancone (hamstring injury), I. Camara (foot injury) and I. Koutsoupias (off the roster), plus two others, are all unavailable.

There isn't much between Jagiellonia's home form and Anderlecht's away form. The two sides are level on points.

We make Anderlecht favourites at 42%, with Jagiellonia on 33% and the draw at 25%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 2.9 in the game: 1.8 for Jagiellonia and 1.1 for Anderlecht. Over 2.5 goals is 57% and both teams scoring 56%.