Lens vs Sporting CP prediction

Lens have won one, drawn none and lost two of their three UEFA Champions League games so far, scoring 3 and letting in 7. That has them 27th on 3 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, one draw and three defeats, at 1.5 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Lyon 2-1 at home; before that came a 2-1 defeat away at Monaco and a 2-2 draw away at Le Mans.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. At home they've won one of two recently (2 scored, 2 conceded). A. Sima, I. Jourdren and J. Chavez, plus three others, are all unavailable.

So far in the UEFA Champions League, Sporting CP have won two, drawn none and lost one of three, with 7 goals scored and 4 conceded, good for 12th place and 6 points.

Over the last six matches it has been four wins, two draws and no defeats, averaging 2.5 goals for and 0.8 against. Last time out they beat Sp Braga 3-1 away; before that came a 2-2 draw at home to Arouca and a 1-1 draw away at Famalicao.

Sporting CP are unbeaten in six. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. Two clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won two of three recently (8 scored, 2 conceded). N. Santos, R. Zalazar and Z. Debast are all unavailable.

Home and away form points to Sporting CP: Lens have won one of their last two at home, Sporting CP two of their last three on the road. Three points separate the two sides in the table. Sporting CP also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Lens favourites at 41%, with Sporting CP on 34% and the draw at 25%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Lens still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 3.1 in the game: 2.2 for Lens and 0.9 for Sporting CP. Over 2.5 goals is 60% and both teams scoring 52%.