Provincial Ovalle vs Santiago Morning prediction

So far in the Segunda División, Provincial Ovalle have won two, drawn three and lost three of eight, with 7 goals scored and 11 conceded, good for 12th place and 9 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, two draws and two defeats, averaging 1.0 goals for and 1.5 against. Last time out they drew 1-1 with Real San Joaquín; before that came a 2-1 defeat at home to General Velásquez and a 5-1 defeat at home to Deportes Rengo.

Provincial Ovalle haven't won in three. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. Two clean sheets in that spell. At home they've won one of three recently (3 scored, 7 conceded).

Santiago Morning have won one, drawn six and lost two of their nine Segunda División games so far, scoring 10 and letting in 13. That has them 11th on 9 points.

Their last six in all competitions read no wins, four draws and two defeats, at 0.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 4-1 to Lota Schwager at home; before that came a 1-1 draw away at Colina and a 2-1 defeat at home to Real San Joaquín.

Santiago Morning haven't won in six. Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. On the road they've won none of two recently (3 scored, 3 conceded).

There isn't much between Provincial Ovalle's home form and Santiago Morning's away form. The two sides are level on points.

We make Santiago Morning favourites at 43%, with Provincial Ovalle on 27% and the draw at 30%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Santiago Morning still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.5 in the game: 1.2 for Provincial Ovalle and 1.4 for Santiago Morning. Over 2.5 goals is 46% and both teams scoring 51%. Their last meeting, on 30 Aug 2026, finished 0-0.