Napoli vs Lazio prediction

Napoli have won four, drawn two and lost four of their ten Serie A games so far, scoring 17 and letting in 13. That has them 8th on 14 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, one draw and three defeats, at 2.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 4-1 to Porto away; before that came a 2-0 defeat away at Juventus and a 4-1 win away at Monza.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. They failed to score in two of those games. At home they've won one of two recently (7 scored, 6 conceded).

So far in the Serie A, Lazio have won nine, drawn one and lost none of ten, with 24 goals scored and 8 conceded, good for 1st place and 28 points.

Over the last six matches it has been five wins, one draw and no defeats, averaging 3.2 goals for and 1.3 against. Last time out they beat Cagliari 2-1 at home; before that came a 6-2 win away at Sassuolo and a 2-1 win at home to Parma.

Lazio are unbeaten in six. They have scored in each of their last six. On the road they've won two of two recently (9 scored, 2 conceded).

Home and away form points to Lazio: Napoli have won one of their last two at home, Lazio two of their last two on the road. 14 points separate the two sides in the table. Lazio also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Napoli favourites at 44%, with Lazio on 29% and the draw at 26%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Napoli still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.8 in the game: 1.5 for Napoli and 1.4 for Lazio. Over 2.5 goals is 53% and both teams scoring 56%. When they last met, on 18 Apr 2026, Lazio won 2-0.