Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction

So far in the Eredivisie, Ajax have won seven, drawn three and lost one of 11, with 30 goals scored and 13 conceded, good for 2nd place and 24 points.

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, two draws and one defeat, averaging 2.2 goals for and 1.3 against. Last time out they beat Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 away; before that came a 2-0 win at home to Atalanta and a 5-2 win away at Groningen.

Ajax are unbeaten in three. They have scored in each of their last six. At home they've won one of three recently (5 scored, 3 conceded). A. Gaaei (injury), Caio Henrique (thigh injury) and K. Dolberg (knee injury), plus three others, are all unavailable.

AZ Alkmaar have won six, drawn two and lost three of their 11 Eredivisie games so far, scoring 20 and letting in 13. That has them 5th on 20 points.

Their last six in all competitions read three wins, one draw and two defeats, at 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 2-0 to Twente at home; before that came a 4-0 win away at Ararat-Armenia and a 2-2 draw away at Cambuur.

Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. On the road they've won one of three recently (6 scored, 4 conceded). A. Oufkir (yellow cards), J. Hornkamp (injury) and J. Zoet (inactive), plus three others, are all unavailable.

There isn't much between Ajax's home form and AZ Alkmaar's away form. Four points separate the two sides in the table. Ajax also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Ajax clear favourites at 60%, with AZ Alkmaar on 19% and the draw at 21%.

On goals, it expects around 3.4 in the game: 2.1 for Ajax and 1.3 for AZ Alkmaar. Over 2.5 goals is 64% and both teams scoring 60%. Their last meeting, on 8 Feb 2026, finished 1-1.