Alverca vs Arouca prediction

Alverca have won three, drawn two and lost five of their ten Primeira Liga games so far, scoring 13 and letting in 14. That has them 10th on 11 points.

Their last six in all competitions read three wins, one draw and two defeats, at 1.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 2-0 to Tondela away; before that came a 4-1 win away at Famalicao and a 1-0 win at home to Rio Ave.

At home they've won one of three recently (3 scored, 3 conceded).

So far in the Primeira Liga, Arouca have won six, drawn two and lost two of ten, with 13 goals scored and 7 conceded, good for 5th place and 20 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, three draws and one defeat, averaging 1.5 goals for and 1.3 against. Last time out they drew 3-3 with CF Os Belenenses; before that came a 1-0 win at home to Estrela and a 2-2 draw away at Sp Lisbon.

Arouca are unbeaten in three. They have scored in each of their last four. Two clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won none of three recently (5 scored, 5 conceded).

There isn't much between Alverca's home form and Arouca's away form. Nine points separate the two sides in the table.

We make Alverca favourites at 42%, with Arouca on 31% and the draw at 27%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Alverca still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.7 in the game: 1.4 for Alverca and 1.3 for Arouca. Over 2.5 goals is 51% and both teams scoring 53%. When they last met, on 24 Apr 2026, Alverca won 2-1.