Istiqlol vs Istaravshan prediction

So far in the Vysshaya Liga, Istiqlol have won 11, drawn four and lost two of 17, with 23 goals scored and 6 conceded, good for 2nd place and 37 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, one draw and three defeats, averaging 0.7 goals for and 0.8 against. Last time out they beat CSKA Pomir 1-0 away; before that came a 1-1 draw at home to Eskhata and a 2-0 defeat at home to Wathba.

Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank three times. At home they've won one of three recently (3 scored, 3 conceded).

Istaravshan have won none, drawn six and lost 12 of their 18 Vysshaya Liga games so far, scoring 15 and letting in 36. That has them 12th on 6 points.

Their last five in all competitions read no wins, one draw and four defeats, at 0.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Last time out they drew 1-1 with Regar-TadAZ; before that came a 2-0 defeat away at Sardor Tursunzoda and a 1-0 defeat at home to Ravshan.

Istaravshan haven't won in five. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last five. They failed to score in three of those games. On the road they've won none of two recently (1 scored, 5 conceded).

Home and away form points to Istiqlol: Istiqlol have won one of their last three at home, Istaravshan none of their last two on the road. 31 points separate the two sides in the table. Istiqlol also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Istiqlol favourites at 47%, with Istaravshan on 24% and the draw at 29%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 2.5 in the game: 1.3 for Istiqlol and 1.1 for Istaravshan. Over 2.5 goals is 45% and both teams scoring 50%.