Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama prediction

So far in the J2 League, Sagan Tosu have won six, drawn two and lost seven of 15, with 15 goals scored and 17 conceded, good for 12th place and 20 points.

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, no draws and three defeats, averaging 1.0 goals for and 1.2 against. Last time out they beat Shonan Bellmare 1-0 away; before that came a 2-0 defeat away at Jubilo Iwata and a 2-0 defeat at home to Kawasaki Frontale.

Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. At home they've won two of three recently (4 scored, 3 conceded).

Kataller Toyama have won eight, drawn four and lost three of their 15 J2 League games so far, scoring 27 and letting in 14. That has them 2nd on 28 points.

Their last six in all competitions read three wins, two draws and one defeat, at 1.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Vegalta Sendai 1-0 at home; before that came a 3-2 win away at Albirex Niigata and a 1-0 defeat at home to Consadole Sapporo.

Two clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won two of two recently (6 scored, 2 conceded).

Home and away form points to Kataller Toyama: Sagan Tosu have won two of their last three at home, Kataller Toyama two of their last two on the road. Eight points separate the two sides in the table. Kataller Toyama also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Sagan Tosu favourites at 40%, with Kataller Toyama on 32% and the draw at 28%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Sagan Tosu still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.5 in the game: 1.1 for Sagan Tosu and 1.4 for Kataller Toyama. Over 2.5 goals is 51% and both teams scoring 51%. When they last met, on 9 Nov 2025, Kataller Toyama won 3-1.