Millesimo vs Ligorna prediction

Millesimo have won five, drawn one and lost four of their ten Serie D - Girone A games so far, scoring 17 and letting in 11. That has them 6th on 16 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, one draw and three defeats, at 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 4-1 to Biellese away; before that came a 1-1 draw at home to Sanremese and a 4-0 win away at Fezzanese.

They have scored in each of their last five. Two clean sheets in that spell. At home they've won one of two recently (4 scored, 1 conceded).

So far in the Serie D - Girone A, Ligorna have won five, drawn two and lost three of ten, with 17 goals scored and 12 conceded, good for 4th place and 17 points.

Over the last six matches it has been four wins, one draw and one defeat, averaging 1.7 goals for and 0.7 against. Last time out they were held to a goalless draw by Sestri Levante; before that came a 1-0 win away at Valenzana and a 2-1 defeat at home to Bra.

Three clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won three of three recently (7 scored, 1 conceded).

Home and away form points to Ligorna: Millesimo have won one of their last two at home, Ligorna three of their last three on the road. One point separates the two sides in the table. Ligorna also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Millesimo favourites at 41%, with Ligorna on 31% and the draw at 28%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Millesimo still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.8 in the game: 1.4 for Millesimo and 1.3 for Ligorna. Over 2.5 goals is 51% and both teams scoring 55%.