São Paulo vs Corinthians prediction

São Paulo have won 12, drawn seven and lost 14 of their 33 Serie A games so far, scoring 39 and letting in 39. That has them 10th on 43 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, one draw and three defeats, at 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 3-2 to Bahia away; before that came a 1-1 draw away at Mirassol and a 1-0 win at home to Vasco.

They have scored in each of their last four. At home they've won two of three recently (4 scored, 3 conceded).

So far in the Serie A, Corinthians have won nine, drawn nine and lost 15 of 33, with 36 goals scored and 42 conceded, good for 17th place and 36 points.

Over the last six matches it has been one win, one draw and four defeats, averaging 1.3 goals for and 2.2 against. Last time out they beat Mirassol 2-0 at home; before that came a 3-2 defeat away at Vasco and a 1-1 draw at home to Vitoria.

They have scored in each of their last six. On the road they've won none of three recently (4 scored, 9 conceded).

Home and away form points to São Paulo: São Paulo have won two of their last three at home, Corinthians none of their last three on the road. Seven points separate the two sides in the table. São Paulo also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make São Paulo favourites at 42%, with Corinthians on 29% and the draw at 30%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 2.7 in the game: 1.3 for São Paulo and 1.4 for Corinthians. Over 2.5 goals is 51% and both teams scoring 55%. When they last met, on 10 May 2026, Corinthians won 3-2.