Progresso vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano prediction

So far in the Serie D - Girone E, Progresso have won one, drawn one and lost eight of ten, with 4 goals scored and 21 conceded, good for 17th place and 4 points.

Over the last six matches it has been no wins, one draw and five defeats, averaging 0.2 goals for and 1.7 against. Last time out they lost 4-0 to Sasso Marconi Zola away; before that came a 1-0 defeat at home to Ternana and a goalless draw away at Grassina.

Progresso haven't won in six. They failed to score in five of those games. At home they've won none of two recently (0 scored, 2 conceded).

Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano have won none, drawn three and lost seven of their ten Serie D - Girone E games so far, scoring 7 and letting in 21. That has them 18th on 3 points.

Their last six in all competitions read no wins, two draws and four defeats, at 0.8 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 4-0 to Robur Siena at home; before that came a 1-1 draw away at Lucchese and a 3-0 defeat at home to Montevarchi Calcio.

Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano haven't won in six. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. They failed to score in three of those games. On the road they've won none of three recently (5 scored, 6 conceded).

Home and away form points to Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano: Progresso have won none of their last two at home, Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano none of their last three on the road. One point separates the two sides in the table.

We make Progresso favourites at 44%, with Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano on 28% and the draw at 28%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Progresso still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.6 in the game: 1.5 for Progresso and 1.1 for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano. Over 2.5 goals is 49% and both teams scoring 52%.