Plzen vs Levski Sofia prediction

So far in the UEFA Europa League, Plzen have won none, drawn none and lost three of three, with 2 goals scored and 7 conceded, good for 33rd place and 0 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, no draws and four defeats, averaging 1.7 goals for and 2.0 against. Last time out they beat FK Jablonec 3-2 away; before that came a 2-1 defeat away at Ferencvarosi TC and a 3-0 win at home to Mlada Boleslav.

They have scored in each of their last four. At home they've won one of three recently (5 scored, 6 conceded). A. Sojka (health problems), J. Paluska (coach's decision) and M. Tvrdon (off the roster), plus two others, are all unavailable.

Levski Sofia have won one, drawn one and lost one of their three UEFA Europa League games so far, scoring 3 and letting in 3. That has them 17th on 4 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, two draws and two defeats, at 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Spartak Pleven 2-0 away; before that came a 1-1 draw away at Nijmegen and a 2-0 win away at Cherno More Varna.

Levski Sofia are unbeaten in three. Three clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. On the road they've won two of four recently (5 scored, 1 conceded). A. Mitkov (injury), G. Trdin (injury) and M. Sangare (off the roster), plus three others, are all unavailable.

Home and away form points to Levski Sofia: Plzen have won one of their last three at home, Levski Sofia two of their last four on the road. Four points separate the two sides in the table. Levski Sofia also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Plzen clear favourites at 62%, with Levski Sofia on 18% and the draw at 20%. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Plzen still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.8 in the game: 1.5 for Plzen and 1.3 for Levski Sofia. Over 2.5 goals is 53% and both teams scoring 54%.