Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense prediction

Atletico-MG have won 14, drawn eight and lost 11 of their 33 Serie A games so far, scoring 44 and letting in 39. That has them 7th on 50 points.

Their last six in all competitions read three wins, one draw and two defeats, at 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Santos 4-2 at home; before that came a 3-1 win at home to Fluminense and a 2-0 defeat away at Santos.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last five. They failed to score in three of those games. At home they've won three of three recently (9 scored, 4 conceded).

So far in the Serie A, Chapecoense have won four, drawn nine and lost 19 of 32, with 32 goals scored and 66 conceded, good for 20th place and 21 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, one draw and three defeats, averaging 1.5 goals for and 1.8 against. Last time out they lost 2-1 to Internacional at home; before that came a 2-1 win away at Corinthians and a 3-1 defeat away at Gremio.

They have scored in each of their last six. On the road they've won one of three recently (4 scored, 6 conceded).

Home and away form points to Atletico-MG: Atletico-MG have won three of their last three at home, Chapecoense one of their last three on the road. 29 points separate the two sides in the table. Atletico-MG also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Atletico-MG clear favourites at 74%, with Chapecoense on 9% and the draw at 17%.

On goals, it expects around 3.3 in the game: 2.5 for Atletico-MG and 0.8 for Chapecoense. Over 2.5 goals is 63% and both teams scoring 51%. When they last met, on 2 Apr 2026, Atletico-MG won 4-0.