Lokomotiv Moskva U19 vs Spartak Moskva U19 prediction

So far in the Youth Championship, Lokomotiv Moskva U19 have won two, drawn none and lost four of six, with 15 goals scored and 22 conceded, good for 11th place and 6 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, no draws and four defeats, averaging 2.5 goals for and 3.7 against. Last time out they beat Dynamo Makhachkala U19 5-2 at home; before that came a 3-1 defeat at home to Rubin Kazan U20 and a 7-5 win away at Ural U20.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. At home they've won one of three recently (7 scored, 8 conceded).

Spartak Moskva U19 have won one, drawn two and lost three of their six Youth Championship games so far, scoring 7 and letting in 10. That has them 14th on 5 points.

Their last six in all competitions read one win, two draws and three defeats, at 1.2 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Akademiya Konoplev U20 1-0 away; before that came a 2-2 draw at home to Dynamo Makhachkala U19 and a 4-2 defeat away at Rubin Kazan U20.

Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. On the road they've won one of four recently (5 scored, 7 conceded).

There isn't much between Lokomotiv Moskva U19's home form and Spartak Moskva U19's away form. One point separates the two sides in the table. Spartak Moskva U19 also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Lokomotiv Moskva U19 favourites at 50%, with Spartak Moskva U19 on 31% and the draw at 19%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Lokomotiv Moskva U19 still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 3.8 in the game: 2.2 for Lokomotiv Moskva U19 and 1.6 for Spartak Moskva U19. Over 2.5 goals is 68% and both teams scoring 63%.