Águilas vs Gimnastic prediction

So far in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2, Águilas have won one, drawn five and lost four of ten, with 9 goals scored and 15 conceded, good for 16th place and 8 points.

Over the last six matches it has been no wins, three draws and three defeats, averaging 0.8 goals for and 1.8 against. Last time out they were held to a goalless draw by Juventud Torremolinos; before that came a 2-0 defeat away at Antequera and a 1-1 draw away at Teruel.

Águilas haven't won in six. They failed to score in two of those games. At home they've won none of two recently (3 scored, 4 conceded).

Gimnastic have won four, drawn two and lost four of their ten Primera División RFEF - Group 2 games so far, scoring 15 and letting in 16. That has them 11th on 14 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, one draw and three defeats, at 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 2-0 to Huesca away; before that came a 4-2 win at home to Hercules and a 2-1 win at home to Atlético Madrid II.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. They failed to score in two of those games. On the road they've won none of three recently (2 scored, 6 conceded).

There isn't much between Águilas's home form and Gimnastic's away form. Six points separate the two sides in the table. Gimnastic also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Águilas favourites at 44%, with Gimnastic on 28% and the draw at 28%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Águilas still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.6 in the game: 1.5 for Águilas and 1.1 for Gimnastic. Over 2.5 goals is 48% and both teams scoring 52%.