Marbelli vs Málaga II prediction

Marbelli have won four, drawn three and lost two of their nine Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 games so far, scoring 8 and letting in 7. That has them 7th on 15 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, two draws and two defeats, at 0.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game. Last time out they were held to a goalless draw by Cantoria; before that came a goalless draw at home to Atlético Porcuna and a 2-0 defeat away at UD San Pedro.

Marbelli haven't won in four. Four clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank four times. At home they've won one of three recently (1 scored, 2 conceded).

So far in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9, Málaga II have won four, drawn three and lost two of nine, with 19 goals scored and 11 conceded, good for 6th place and 15 points.

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, two draws and one defeat, averaging 1.8 goals for and 1.2 against. Last time out they drew 2-2 with Melilla; before that came a 4-2 win away at Motril and a 1-1 draw at home to Churriana Vega.

Málaga II are unbeaten in three. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. Two clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won one of two recently (5 scored, 4 conceded).

There isn't much between Marbelli's home form and Málaga II's away form. The two sides are level on points. Málaga II also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Marbelli favourites at 43%, with Málaga II on 26% and the draw at 31%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Marbelli still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.4 in the game: 1.4 for Marbelli and 1.0 for Málaga II. Over 2.5 goals is 44% and both teams scoring 49%.