Derby vs Stoke City prediction

So far in the Championship, Derby have won one, drawn four and lost eight of 13, with 11 goals scored and 25 conceded, good for 23rd place and 7 points.

Over the last six matches it has been no wins, two draws and four defeats, averaging 0.7 goals for and 2.0 against. Last time out they lost 4-1 to Queens Park Rangers away; before that came a 1-1 draw at home to Wrexham and a 1-1 draw away at Burnley.

Derby haven't won in six. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. They failed to score in two of those games. At home they've won none of three recently (2 scored, 4 conceded). C. Forsyth (knee injury), C. Taylor (injury) and D. Murkin (hamstring injury), plus six others, are all unavailable.

Stoke City have won seven, drawn two and lost four of their 13 Championship games so far, scoring 20 and letting in 16. That has them 7th on 23 points.

Their last six in all competitions read four wins, one draw and one defeat, at 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 3-2 to Middlesbrough at home; before that came a 2-1 win away at Bolton and a 2-1 win at home to Sheffield United.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last five. On the road they've won two of three recently (5 scored, 3 conceded). A. Ampah (knee injury), A. Cresswell (knee injury) and S. Gallagher (injury), plus one other, are all unavailable.

Home and away form points to Stoke City: Derby have won none of their last three at home, Stoke City two of their last three on the road. 16 points separate the two sides in the table. Stoke City also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Derby favourites at 38%, with Stoke City on 34% and the draw at 28%. In truth there's very little in it.

On goals, it expects around 2.7 in the game: 1.4 for Derby and 1.3 for Stoke City. Over 2.5 goals is 50% and both teams scoring 54%. When they last met, on 6 Apr 2026, Derby won 2-0.