Fazendense vs Nazarenos prediction

So far in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C, Fazendense have won none, drawn one and lost six of seven, with 8 goals scored and 23 conceded, good for 14th place and 1 point.

Over the last six matches it has been one win, no draws and five defeats, averaging 1.7 goals for and 3.2 against. Last time out they lost 6-1 to Fátima away; before that came a 2-1 defeat at home to Os Marialvas and a 2-1 defeat at home to Estrela.

Fazendense haven't won in five. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. At home they've won one of three recently (8 scored, 5 conceded).

Nazarenos have won one, drawn two and lost four of their seven Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C games so far, scoring 5 and letting in 12. That has them 13th on 5 points.

Their last six in all competitions read one win, two draws and three defeats, at 0.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Last time out they were held to a goalless draw by Sertanense; before that came a 1-1 draw at home to Oliveira Hospital and a 3-1 win away at Fátima.

Nazarenos are unbeaten in three. They failed to score in four of those games. On the road they've won one of two recently (3 scored, 4 conceded).

Home and away form points to Nazarenos: Fazendense have won one of their last three at home, Nazarenos one of their last two on the road. Four points separate the two sides in the table. Nazarenos also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Fazendense favourites at 38%, with Nazarenos on 36% and the draw at 27%. In truth there's very little in it.

On goals, it expects around 2.8 in the game: 1.4 for Fazendense and 1.4 for Nazarenos. Over 2.5 goals is 52% and both teams scoring 55%.