Coritiba vs Paranaense prediction

Coritiba have won 11, drawn nine and lost 13 of their 33 Serie A games so far, scoring 40 and letting in 50. That has them 11th on 42 points.

Their last six in all competitions read three wins, one draw and two defeats, at 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 2-1 to Mirassol at home; before that came a 3-2 win away at Remo and a 2-1 win at home to Corinthians.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. At home they've won two of four recently (5 scored, 5 conceded).

So far in the Serie A, Paranaense have won 15, drawn nine and lost nine of 33, with 50 goals scored and 40 conceded, good for 5th place and 54 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, three draws and one defeat, averaging 1.7 goals for and 1.5 against. Last time out they lost 3-1 to Cruzeiro away; before that came a 3-3 draw at home to Fluminense and a 3-2 win away at Botafogo RJ.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. Two clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won two of four recently (6 scored, 5 conceded).

There isn't much between Coritiba's home form and Paranaense's away form. 12 points separate the two sides in the table.

We make Coritiba clear favourites at 55%, with Paranaense on 22% and the draw at 23%. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Coritiba still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 3.0 in the game: 2.0 for Coritiba and 1.0 for Paranaense. Over 2.5 goals is 58% and both teams scoring 56%. When they last met, on 22 Mar 2026, Athletico-PR won 2-0.