Quorn vs Alfreton Town prediction

Quorn have won three, drawn five and lost five of their 13 Non League Premier - Northern games so far, scoring 23 and letting in 29. That has them 17th on 14 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, three draws and one defeat, at 2.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Warrington Town 3-2 at home; before that came a 1-1 draw away at United of Manchester and a 6-2 defeat away at Kettering Town.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. At home they've won two of three recently (8 scored, 4 conceded).

So far in the Non League Premier - Northern, Alfreton Town have won six, drawn two and lost seven of 15, with 21 goals scored and 17 conceded, good for 10th place and 20 points.

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, two draws and one defeat, averaging 1.3 goals for and 1.0 against. Last time out they beat AFC Emley 2-1 at home; before that came a 2-1 win away at Mickleover Sports and a 1-1 draw at home to Warrington Town.

Alfreton Town are unbeaten in four. Two clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won one of two recently (2 scored, 1 conceded).

There isn't much between Quorn's home form and Alfreton Town's away form. Six points separate the two sides in the table.

We make Quorn clear favourites at 51%, with Alfreton Town on 25% and the draw at 24%. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Quorn still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 3.2 in the game: 1.9 for Quorn and 1.3 for Alfreton Town. Over 2.5 goals is 60% and both teams scoring 58%.