Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United prediction

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, two draws and two defeats, at 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Fujieda MYFC 2-1 away; before that came a 1-1 draw away at V-Varen Nagasaki and a 6-1 defeat away at Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. At home they've won one of two recently (2 scored, 0 conceded).

Over the last six matches it has been five wins, one draw and no defeats, averaging 2.5 goals for and 1.5 against. Last time out they beat Fukushima United 3-2 at home; before that came a 1-1 draw away at Kitakyushu and a 3-1 win at home to Tochigi SC.

Kagoshima United are unbeaten in six. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. On the road they've won two of three recently (7 scored, 5 conceded).

There isn't much between Cerezo Osaka's home form and Kagoshima United's away form. Kagoshima United also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Cerezo Osaka favourites at 42%, with Kagoshima United on 31% and the draw at 27%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Cerezo Osaka still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.9 in the game: 1.7 for Cerezo Osaka and 1.2 for Kagoshima United. Over 2.5 goals is 56% and both teams scoring 58%.